FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM OF SELECTING A RATIONAL SET OF MEASURES TO REDUCE RISKS OF EMERGENCIES AT FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX FACILITIES

The article presents the formulation of the problem of selecting a rational set of measures to reduce risks of emergency situations (ES) at fuel and energy complex (FEC) facilities. A mathematical optimization model is developed that integrates probabilistic, economic, and entropy-based criteria. A numerical experiment is conducted to validate the algorithm and demonstrate its practical applicability to FEC facilities. The relevance of considering informational uncertainty in the analysis of rare but catastrophic ES scenarios is substantiated, with an entropy criterion incorporated into the model. An optimization algorithm is proposed, accounting for constraints on budget, number of implemented measures, acceptable residual risk level, and system uncertainty. In the demonstration example with a single scenario the algorithm’s performance was analyzed, and the model’s correctness was confirmed. It was established that entropy integration is essential for multi-scenario problems that are promising for practical application. The results obtained can be used to enhance the substantiation and adaptability of decision-making in industrial safety management systems for FEC facilities under conditions of high uncertainty and limited resources. The work is aimed at integration into project-based risk management processes for emergencies at the industrial facility level and can serve as a foundation for developing intelligent decision-support tools.